Therefore, I assume = 1/9. Once you look at this chart, you can’t unsee New York’s line. Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom holds fast to the original premises of Silicon Valley: Technology can improve our lives, connecting people helps humanity, and tech guys aren’t just in it for the money. How quickly would it grow? Only then on the 20th, Gov. and are harder, and likely dependent on the specific population. New York is currently hugging the ‘doubles every two days’ line – which for a state of of nearly 20 million people should give you pause. I will analyze specific countries, like Italy, where people are looking to see the effects of a national lockdown. In response, the government quarantined all of Hubei province’s cities by the 27th. Kevin Systrom Net Worth Social media is a relatively new phenomenon that has made a big impact on many people's lives. I wanted to try two things. First, the ‘most likely value’ of Rt for each day, represented by the dots (the more red a dot is, the higher and more dangerous the value of Rt is). Notice how many of the states without a shelter-in-place order—Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota— have some of the highest Rt values. If you ran the university and your margin of comfort was 90% of not having any students with COVID-19, you moved classes online at precisely the right time. When they do bend (China and Korea), it has taken draconian quarantines, mass surveillance and mass testing – none of which exist in the US. Systrom was also a Googler for two years working as an associate marketing manager for Gmail, Google Calendar and Google Docs. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. And I think that’s a deadly combination in entrepreneurship.”, “The one thing we’ve yet to crack is what’s happening in the world, live. It’s possible New York missed cases and is now catching up. Looking at the chart and knowing the US has relatively mild measures, it’s not hard to conclude that cases will soar past China’s and end far higher. He co‑founded Instagram, the world's largest photo sharing website, along with Mike Krieger. Total cases start slow, ramp exponentially, then linearly and finally taper off at some limit. Only an act of god (or a more reasonable national lockdown of all transit and non-essential health, food and government business banned) will give the US a fighting chance. Kevin Systrom’s net worth estimate is $1.5 billion. Therefore the probability that no one in a group of k has Covid-19 is: Let’s look at San Francisco and New York City as examples. The last section described four knowns: S, I, R, N. We also have three unknowns: (gamma, rate of recovery), (beta, rate of transmission) and (delta, social distancing factor) that we need to estimate. He also worked on Google’s corporate development team. North Dakota’s interval is so wide that it includes many possible values above 1.0—therefore we can’t safely conclude that Rt is truly below 1.0. While the measure of Rt can be abstract, it shows up in the case data. This isn’t just opinion. And his sudden love for photography, inspired from his mother, took him to the lists of millionaires. Cuomo dismissed the idea of a shelter in place order: “As a matter of fact, I’m going so far that I don’t even think you can do a state-wide policy.”. I mentioned how hard it is to bend these curves. New cases per day is the slope of the ‘total cases’ line: Warning: Lots of math ahead. The change was simple. After all, California has 40 million residents – Italy has 60M. So she just said, ‘Well, you should probably have filters then.’ We went back to this small bed and breakfast in Mexico with dial-up internet connection and I spent the afternoon learning how to make a filter. The beauty of modeling is that you can decide to adjust this number based on your own beliefs if you disagree. As of March 25th, they had 178 and 20,011 cases and populations of 884k and 8.6M respectively. We’re all learning and making it up as we go along, in the best way possible. As we socially distance and isolate, R plummets. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well. Had I known it was going to be the first photo on Instagram I would have tried a bit harder.”. One particular method Bettencourt & Ribeiro described in their 2008 paper, “Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases.” This solution caught my attention because it focuses on the same principles from my first post, Predicting Coronavirus Cases. While R0 is a useful measure, it is flawed in an important way: it’s static. NYU has a population of about 51,000 students. Because the value changes so rapidly, Epidemiologists have argued that the only true way to combat COVID19 is to understand and manage by Rt. As discussed, we assume = 1/9 (9 days of infectiousness). By the way, these lines don’t bend easily. If they evolve in predictable ways, ask yourself: why is this time is any different? Thank you to Jim Fisher for pointing this out. I suspect history will show that the early action in California saved countless lives. DJ Kevin Systrom in the house! The traditional model doesn’t include this effect, but there’s no reason why we can’t add if we assume (and witness) that’s the way the world works. One million were using it three months in. The SIR model attempts to explain both of these situations. I agree, and I’d go further: we not only need to know Rt, we need to know local Rt. Remember that is the number of people an infected person infects over time. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available. Now let’s say you run Starbucks, and you have to decide when to close your stores in NYC. The US just crossed a dangerous threshold, Every infected city/area develops independently, tracing its own curve along the way. You can review each state in the main graphic at the top, but a denser view might be helpful, too. Of all the first posts I’d write, this was the least likely. Consider Maine. The other week, I thought about whether this model could be applied to coronavirus. Since I’m not an epidemiologist, it’s even more important that I explain the model’s uncertainty through ranges of values called credible intervals. He said he enjoyed doing many different things as he was growing up. As the infected group grows, you’re more likely to run into someone sick and catch it yourself. The newly developed Burbn pivoted to become Instagram. When might it stop growing? Below you can see select results for Michigan, Washington and New York. If people don’t ‘hunker down’ is zero and the virus infects the full population. Let’s call the beginning the day a region (country, state or city) reaches 100 cases. Compare Massachusetts’s new cases per day to Louisiana’s. At the same time, I worry the hesitation–if only for a few days–in New York might be one of the largest public policy mistakes of our generation. The math says isolation is the fastest way to make this pandemic disappear. After a series of cases linked to China, Italy’s cases grew quickly. I applied this algorithm to the data to produce a model for each state’s Rt, and how it changes over time. Systrom explained the moment he thought of developing Instagram from Burbn while on vacation in Mexico with Schuetz: “I was on vacation with my fiancée – at the time, my girlfriend – Nicole in Mexico when we had the aha moment. This is ‘rough’ because most people stay home if they’re sick. More directly: in a group of people, what are the chances that no one has Covid-19? On the one hand, some pundits argued cases would whimper out within a few weeks. Most importantly: this is a work in progress. Although only two in every 1000 people have coronavirus in NYC, probability works in such a way that your chances of encountering at least one person in 250 are staggering. They stick around. In this case, restrictions should continue. Which one was it? Instead of worst-case scenarios, let’s look at which states are almost certainly below the 1.0 threshold. After Google, Systrom went to work for Nextstop, a San Francisco-based location recommendation startup. what’s the probability someone is not infected? I hope by sharing this work with you, you will consider Rt as the metric that can guide our analysis and decision-making. I assume, then, that the average infectious period is about 9 days (5 plus half of 8). The relationship between the number of cases yesterday and the number of cases today give us a hint of what Rt might be. The good news is that for the second straight day the number of new cases in Italy has dropped. Regardless, you should watch these states over the next week. ): If you want to know the probability that multiple (independent) events are true at the same time, you have to multiply their individual probabilities. R0 is the basic reproduction number of an epidemic. Through my research, I found a model called the SIR model that applies to infectious diseases. Even Idaho has a wide HDI, so it’s too early to tell. Below, I’ve run the same model, but this time with various levels of δ. Some are more likely than others, like the red dotted average case below. Sometimes all you need to do is find similar situations and observe how they evolved. If R0 is greater than one, the epidemic spreads quickly **. At Stanford University, he was a member of the Sigma Nu fraternity- a social organization whose mission is to develop ethical leaders, to foster personal gro… © NextShark INC. 2018. In this case, we have states – each of which has a very different trajectory. To fix this, I made one significant change to their algorithm that maintains the integrity of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original work while allowing us to see the real-time picture clearly. This is the second key lesson. The process then repeats itself with those new users. Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion in stock and cash in 2012, and Systrom stayed on to continue running it. On March 1st, you could walk freely. Her father is a marketing executive at Zipcar, and her mother was Vice President of Human Resources at TJX Companies. I also hope that by seeing how bad this can get, we might collectively avoid the worst predicted outcomes by acting quickly and decisively. It’s defined as the number of secondary infections produced by a single infection. First, there are laws – read yours. Maine looks to have reduced Rt below 1.0, but the gray band shows us that we cannot safely conclude we are below the safety threshold, since it’s possible that Rt is still above 1.0. At the same time, there are some cases that might happen but are less likely. For instance, the model claims there is a 95% chance we will have more than 15.4 million infections in the United States. For this, I decided to use pymc3, a library for probabilistic programming. I don’t have all the answers, nor do I claim to know the future for certain. The chart above shows that Michigan (1,328), New Jersey (2,860) and Illinois (1,285) have grown far more quickly in a shorter number of days. Side note: this math underscores how heroic it is for any person to step into their job to keep us fed, healthy and safe. Louisiana still has far more new cases than Washington per day, but Louisiana’s outbreak will not be growing as nearly quickly as Washington and will soon see cases decline even more rapidly. What’s the largest group you could be in? Here in California, we’re finishing our first week of shelter in place. While R0 values in the range of 3-4 as shown above mean it will spread to nearly all people in the population, a value of 1.5 might only spread to ~60% (depending on your parameter estimates). What follows is an application of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s process (with an important modification) to US State COVID19 data. They often met each other at various gatherings at Stanford when Kevin Systrom was a student there, and after Instagram’s launch, Mark also used to hold Dinner sessions with him at his house. Here, I’ve plotted states where the high end of their HDI is less than 1.1. When you hear ‘flatten the curve’, this is what they’re talking about. First, San Francisco and surrounding counties mandated residents to shelter in place on March 16th – there were 472 cases. Let I be the number of local active cases and N be the local population: To answer our original question, we take the complement (i.e. Andreessen Horowitz who became interested uncertain about the virus, and I ’ d write, modified! The measure of direction, not absolute size that every person that joins brings at least one person. Using the same model, but you will always get a clearer picture analyzing. Soon will ensure this line stays straight, up, and it ’ s the largest group you could in. 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